Carson Group, which has maintained a positive outlook on stocks this year, recently took an even sunnier view and boosted its expectations.
“As we noted six months ago, we thought the odds were high for potential surprises this year, with most of those being to the upside. We were among the few not expecting a recession this year,” the firm said in its midyear outlook.
“Our upside scenario has played out so far, and as a result, we are upgrading our return expectation for stocks from 12-15% to 21-25% for 2023, on the back of solid momentum for stocks and the resilient U.S. economy.” (This is a total return forecast for the S&P 500.)
Strong economic data and persistent inflation mean the Federal Reserve won’t likely cut interest rates this year, so the firm is maintaining its expectation that the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index will produce a total return of 4% to 5% in 2023, close to where it started the year.
Stocks and bonds both have bounced back nicely this year as 2022′s “vicious headwinds” turned into tailwinds and investors showed excitement over artificial intelligence breakthroughs and their implications for the economy, Carson Group noted.
The financial planning and investment strategy firm’s own proprietary leading economic index currently indicates no recession.
“There will be more scary headlines and market volatility in the second half of ’23, but have faith that better times will indeed come,” the firm said.
Check out the gallery for six reasons why the firm remains positive on the stock market and the economy.