Our industry experts analyzed various charts and organized this summary of what traders may expect to see for the coming week.
E-Mini S&P Weekly Chart
Last week’s candle continues the bullish start to 2023, as the E-Mini S&P 500 future advances towards a confluence of resistance areas: the 38% Fibonacci retracement level at 4038, the 50-Week Moving Average at 4050 and the downward-sloping trendline at 4060. If the market can breakthrough these resistance levels, the recent high of 4177 as well as 50% Fib retracement level at 4193 is in play. Should the resistance hold and trend turns bearish, support might be found at the 200-Week Moving Average (3775).
Gold Future Weekly Chart
Buyers continue to push this market up, as last week the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1876 was left in the dust. The next upside target for gold is the 61% Fib retracement level of 1934, and then 1970, which was a resistance level in May 2021 and an area of consolidation in early 2022. Both the MACD and RSI indicators are showing a bullish state, with the RSI yet to achieve an overbought status. Possible support at the 1820 (50-Week Moving Average) area should the current trend reverse.
Crude Oil Weekly Chart
Crude oil has found support in the $70 – $73.50 since early December, but can’t seem to trade above the 50-Week Moving Average (currently at $81.90). Other obstacles on the upside are the downward-sloping trendline of lower highs at 83.36 and the 23% Fibonacci retracement level at 81.38. The MACD is poised to give a bullish crossing indication should this market improve. If the market turns bearish, look for support at $70 (previous support area low) and $63.50 (200-Week Moving Average).
British Pound Weekly Chart
British Pound shows a nice V-Shaped recovery from it’s lows in October, though staying above the 50-Week Moving Average has proved to be a difficult task, as it makes another run at overcoming this level (currently at 1.2277). Further resistance possible at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2367. A reach to the 200-Week Moving Average at 1.3038 currently would help make a strong bullish case for cable futures. Nearer term support at 1.1909 is possible should the moving average hold as resistance.
Economic Reports for the week of January 16th – January 20th
All eyes are on Wednesday morning’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report to see if PPI follows the trend of the recent CPI report and Fed Presidents’ statements – indicating the U.S. could be past peak inflation. Multiple housing-related reports arrive the mornings of Wednesday through Friday, which can shed some light on the strength (or weakness) of the housing market. The Beige Book is released Wednesday afternoon, which gives insight into the economic factors that the Fed is using to set economic policy.
Red = Most impactful reports
Green = Somewhat impactful reports
Blue = Housing-related reports
|Monday, January 16th||No reports due to the Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday|
|Tuesday, January 17th||8:30 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Index|
|Wednesday, January 18th||7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET: PPI-Final Demand
9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production
2:00 PM ET: Beige Book
4:00 PM ET: Treasury International Capital
|Thursday, January 19th||
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits
8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
|Friday, January 20th||08:30 AM ET: Export Sales
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales
01:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count @bakerhughesco
Companies Reporting Earnings January 17th – January 20th
The first earnings season of 2023 ramps up with Goldman Sachs and P&G reporting Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Both reports occur before market open, so be aware that Dow futures could see a price move when those reports are released. Also on Thursday, Netflix reports earnings at 4 pm—as it is a component in both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500, look out for volatility at that time.
BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close
|Tuesday, January 17th||Goldman Sachs Group (GS): $5.25 EPS Estimate, $11.44B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Morgan Stanley (MS): $1.25 EPS Estimate, $255.78B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
United Airlines (UAL): $2.07 EPS Estimate, $12.26B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
|Wednesday, January 18th||Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW): $1.10 EPS Estimate, $5.53B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT): $2.48 EPS Estimate, $3.86B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Alcoa, Inc. (AA): $-0.76 EPS Estimate, $2.66B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Discover Financial Services (DFS): $3.58 EPS Estimate, $3.66B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
|Thursday, January 19th||Procter & Gamble Co. (PG): $1.57 EPS Estimate, $20.58B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): $0.45 EPS Estimate, $7.82B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
|Friday, January 20th||SLB (SLB): $0.69 EPS Estimate, $7.83B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
State Street Corp. (STT): $1.97 EPS Estimate, $2.96B revenue Estimate (BMO)
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