The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes will be a key focal point for investors in the week ahead, as they seek clarity on the central bank’s interest rate hiking path. Stocks ended the week on a mixed note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.13% for the week. The 30-stock index notched its third negative week in a row, which is its first since September. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.59% for the week, and the S & P 500 is down 0.28%. Some Fed commentary this week suggesting higher rates for longer, following a series of surprisingly strong economic data, weighed on markets. On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the central bank still has a long way to go to reach its 2% inflation target. On Thursday, the producer price index gained 0.7% last month , greater than the 0.4% consensus estimate from Dow Jones. PPI tracks wholesale prices. On Tuesday, the consumer price index showed i nflation rose 0.5% in January, which was also higher than economists were expecting. January retail sales data also smashed expectations . Meanwhile, bond yields surged this week, with rates on the benchmark 10-year Treasury and the 2-year Treasury reaching their highest levels since November. “I think that the the narrative of the market has shifted a little bit over the past couple of weeks from the positives from disinflation, and better than expected economic data that led to maybe the idea of a soft landing becoming more likely, which is positive for risk assets, to the economy maybe being so strong that the Fed would need to perhaps raise rates a few more times than what’s expected,” said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. “So, I think what the markets can be focused on over the next week is to see just how strong the economic data is,” he added. Fed meeting minutes For Wall Street, there will be greater emphasis next week on the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, which are set to be released Wednesday. Following some recent comments from central bank officials suggesting greater rate hikes ahead, investors will parse the meeting minutes for further signs of hawkishness. “We’ve recently started to hear from some members that there was some advocating for 50 basis points at the last meeting. So this will give us a rundown of how large that cohort is, and if any of them are voters,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. In fact, the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike is now 18.1%, which is double what it was one week ago, according to data from CME Group . Hogan is also anticipating some additional insight into the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, or where the central bank believes the terminal rates will stand. Other forthcoming data will give investors further insight the strength of the consumer. January’s data for existing home sales will be released Tuesday, possibly showing investors a continued improvement in the housing industry. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge — personal consumption expenditures — will be out Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones predict core PCE gained 0.5% in January and rose 4.4% on an annual basis. February’s final reading of consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also due Friday. Retail earnings Meanwhile, a slate of retail earnings will show Wall Street how household names such as Home Depot and Walmart are managing their inventories. The results will also give investors the latest read into the state of the U.S. consumer. Other notable earnings include Nvidia. The semiconductor stock has emerged as an investor favorite to play the recent hype around artificial intelligence , because of its software and hardware capabilities. The stock is up more than 50% this year. Week ahead calendar Monday The NYSE is closed for Presidents’ Day. Tuesday 9:45 a.m. ET: S & P Global Composite PMI (February) 10 a.m.: Existing home sales (January) Earnings: Home Depot , Walmart , Coinbase , Toll Brothers Wednesday 2 p.m. ET: Fed minutes 5:30 p.m. ET: New York Fed President John Williams speaks Earnings: Baidu , eBay , Nvidia Thursday 8:30 a.m. ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January) 8:30 a.m. ET: Jobless claims (week ending Feb. 11) 8:30 a.m. ET: Q4 GDP (second reading) 11 a.m. ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (February) Earnings: Alibaba , Beyond Meat , Block , Booking Holdings , Warner Bros Discovery Friday 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal consumption expenditures (January) 10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment (February) 10 a.m. ET: New home sales (January)
Fed meeting minutes and retail earnings are in focus in the week ahead